The Fall of Rome. The Collapse of Alexandria. The Division of the Mongols. The De-Imperialization of the British. And now, the Implosion of the Packers and Bucs. In hindsight, we should have seen this coming. The Packer’s best receiver was a lizard (Allen Lazard) and Tampa Bay’s O-Line was made of Tristan Wirfs and Elmer’s Glue. We just didn’t think this would happen. Let’s look at the cases of several “powerhouses” that were supposed to be elite this year that have either underwhelmed or just sucked.
- Cleveland Browns (2-5)
There were great expectations for this Browns team coming into this year. Deshaun Watson would play behind a spectacular offensive line with amazing pass catchers in David Njoku and Amari Cooper. Nick Chubb would provide a blistering rushing attack with Kareem Hunt being an elite number two. The defense had possibly the best Edge in the game in Myles Garrett, with Jadeveon Clowney terrorizing lineman from the other side of the line. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was a budding star at linebacker, Denzel Ward was an elite cornerback, and Greg Newsome II was amazing at locking down opponents #2 targets.
What Went Wrong?
Suspensions and Disappointing Defense. Deshaun Watson is suspended until Week 11, where he will play his former team, the Houston Texans. His backup, Jacoby Brissett, hasn’t played bad, but he isn’t a world beater by any stretch of the imagination. The offense has seemed limited at many points, and teams selling out to stop the run seems to be working. The defense is incredibly underwhelming, especially against the run. J O-K hasn’t built on his strong season last year, and Denzel Ward has been putrid so far.
Myles Garret has been Myles Garrett, but Jadeveon Clowney only has 1.5 sacks.
FPI Chance to Make Playoffs: 6%
- Arizona Cardinals (3-4)
We all knew this would be a developmental year for the Cards, but I think we all expected at least a Wild Card Berth. Byron Murphy Jr. and Budda Baker led a young secondary, and Zavien Collins was blossoming at linebacker. The Pass-Rush definitely lacked juice, with the only big name being an aging J.J. Watt, but the offense is the disappointment here. Kyler Murray is a great Tier-2 QB, and James Connor was a great RB1. DeAndre Hopkins was suspended, but they made up for that by going out and getting Hollywood Brown from the Ravens.
What Went Wrong?
The Pass Rush can’t generate enough pressure. Chandler Jones was clearly the entire pass rush here, and this is demonstrated in each and every matchup. They have only 11 sacks, good for 26th in the league.
The offense is potent, but there’s a reason why the Chiefs are dropping 40 bombs on them.
FPI Chance to Make Playoffs: 24.3%
- San Francisco 49ers (3-4)
San Francisco was looked at as a big Super Bowl contender at the start of the year. They had an unproven QB in Trey Lance, but they could always swap him out for reliable vet Jimmy Garoppolo if needed. Elijah Mitchell led a blistering rush attack, and they had no shortage of pass catchers in Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. The line was a bit shaky, but Trent Williams was a force on the left side. Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead presented a two-headed pass rushing monster on the other side of the ball, with safety Jimmie Ward and linebacker Fred Warner locking up in zone schemes. However, they merely tread water at 3-4.
What Went Wrong?
QB play will hold them back. Jimmy is a serviceable quarterback, but there is a reason they traded up when they had the chance to grab Trey.
Jimmy can’t make tough throws downfield, and the offense relies heavily on the run and screen dump-offs to move the ball. It’s shown when they played the Chiefs this past weekend.
FPI Chance to Make Playoffs: 60.9%
- Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
Even with a shaky line, the Rams looked poised to repeat. Matthew Stafford is still a Canton-bound quarterback, with one of the best Wideout corps in the league with Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson II, and Tyler Higbee. Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd lead a fearsome front four. Jalen Ramsey held down the fort in the secondary and Bobby Wagner bolstered their linebacking core. However, they’ve suffered brutal losses to the Bills and 49ers.
What Went Wrong?
The O-Line. All of it. Stafford has no time to throw, and it is apparent more and more each game. Joe Noteboom is a terrible Andrew Whitworth replacement. The Rams have allowed defenders to strip-sack Stafford 4 times, and things need to improve.
Perhaps a trade deadline acquisition?
FPI Chance to Make Playoffs: 24.6%
- Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)
The defense had a two headed pass-rush duo in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, an underrated linebacker corps with Danny Tranquill and Kyle Van Noy, and a secondary headlined by J.C. Jackson and Derwin James. Justin Herbert led the charge on offense behind a new and improved offensive line, and Austin Ekeler looked to pound the rock down the opponent’s throats. The pass catchers were plenty talented, with notable names Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. All that to lose to the Jags.
What Went Wrong?
Run Defense. Time and time again, opponents relentlessly rushed the ball against LA’s lackluster linebackers.
Their losses have all come with their opponent gaining over 100 yards rushing, except Kansas City. I guess the idea of “We can’t be hurt by their secondary and pass rush if we don’t pass” is working.
FPI Chance to Make Playoffs: 56.8%
- Indianapolis Colts (3-3-1)
As I am writing this article, news has broken that the Colts are benching Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger.
This pretty much sums up the Colts. However, coming into the season there was a lot of hype around Indy. Matt Ryan was another stopgap QB, sure, but he had talent around him. Quenten Nelson had a case as the best guard in the game, and Jonathan Taylor pounded the rock with efficiency last year. Michael Pittman Jr. was a budding star at wideout, and the defense was scary. Darius Leonard led a great linebacking core, with another ferocious pass rush duo in Yanick Ngakoue and DeForest Buckner. Stephon Gilmore improved their secondary, with Kenny Moore II being an underrated asset. All that to lose to the Jags.
What Went Wrong?
Complete offensive ineptitude. Indy can’t run. Indy can’t pass. Indy can’t do anything except pray that their defense forces a turnover in the red zone. The defense does its best, but there is a reason why Frank Reich is shaking up the QB room in Week 7.
FPI Chance to Make Playoffs: 11.6%
- Denver Broncos (2-5)
Remember when everybody thought Denver would make noise last Summer? Feels like a millennia ago. There was just reason for doing so. Russell Wilson would cook up to a two-headed running back monster of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. He had legitimate pass catchers in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Albert Okwuegbunam. The defense added (admittedly overpaid) edge rusher Randy Gregory, and Bradley Chubb looked to regain his Pro-Bowl form. Patrick Surtain II and Justin Simmons were deadly in the secondary, as Denver looked ready to rumble… to a 2-5 record.
What Went Wrong?
Russ couldn’t cook. The offense isn’t getting better through seven weeks, part of your deadly running back tandem tore his ACL, and the other half wants a trade.
You just lost to the New York Jets, and you don’t have a first-round pick for the next three years. Nathaniel Hackett reeks of ineptitude, but your organization will likely keep him around for far too long. How did you guys get worse after adding Russell Wilson?
FPI Chance to Make Playoffs: 0.7%
- Detroit Lions (1-5)
Sure, nobody had the Lions as a team that was supposed to win 12+ games this year, but many had the Lions squeaking into the playoffs as the 6 or 7 seed. The offense had high-caliber weapons all around Jared Goff. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a gem of a wide receiver. T.J. Hockenson is one of the better tight ends in the league. D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams made up a blistering ground game. The O-Line could be argued as the best in the league. Receiver D.J. Chark was a steal in free agency. On defense… you had Aidan Hutchinson, and that’s about it, besides your most recent cornerback bust in Jeff Okubdah.
What Went Wrong?
Defense. The offense has (mostly) gelled, but teams do whatever they want to Detroit’s flimsy defense. Pass the ball? 20 yards of separation for your receivers. Run the ball? More lanes than a bowling alley.
Aidan Hutchinson generates pressure off the edge, but nobody else besides Malcom Rodriguez could walk onto an XFL roster and start. How much of the blames does Dan Campbell shoulder? Yeah, he has a great personality, but at the end of the day, success is determined by wins and loss
FPI Chance to Make Playoffs: 0.2%
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)
GOAT at QB. Wide receiver room with 2 Pro Bowl receivers. Pro Bowl Left Tackle. All-Pro Linebacking corps. Possibly the best defensive tackle in the game. Pro Bowl free safety. 1,000-yard rusher at running back. 3-4. Wait, that’s not right…
What Went Wrong?
The O-Line. Tampa’s stingy defense has met expectations, but injuries in training camp to their O-Line have derailed the Bucs quite a bit. Tristan Wirfs keeps Brady’s blindside clean, but nobody else on the line could crack a CFL roster. Brady is great when he’s not lying on his back, but that isn’t happening too often.
They just lost to the Panthers. Also, isn’t it kind of interesting that when Tom Brady has to play with a proven terrible coach, Todd Bowles, he isn’t as successful? Nah, I’m sure having two Hall of Fame head coaches had no impact on his playing career.
FPI Chance to Make Playoffs: 66.7%
- Green Bay Packers (3-4)
Rodgers should switch to Geico commercials. That way, the Lizard can replace Allen Lazard. He’d probably catch more passes than Allen has. The Packer’s defense has been, as usual, quiet but good, boasting the likes of Devondre Campbell, Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary, Adrian Amos and Jaire Alexander. The offense looked good on paper despite Rodgers lacking pass-catching threats. David Bakhtari was a rock on the O-Line, and Aaron Jones was a great dual-threat back. Robert Tonyan could be a serviceable option at tight end. Then they lost to Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Taylor Heinicke.
What Went Wrong?
The Receivers. Aaron has none. I doubt Sammy Watkins coming back from injury will fix anything. The vets (Watkins, Cobb, Lazard, Tonyan) have all shown their ceiling, and it’s too low. The young guys, (Watson, Doubs, Jones) are far too inconsistent at times.
The worst part is, they’ve finished the easiest part of their schedule. They’re also a Patriot’s fumble away from being 2-5 with a loss to Bailey Zappe. It doesn’t bode well for the Cheeseheads.
FPI Chance to Make Playoffs: 53%
