October is upon us, and for the first time since their 2012 Wild Card berth, the Texas Rangers have earned a spot in the postseason. Their division-clinching triumph over the rival Los Angeles Angels on Sunday culminated what may have been the most unexpected, unpredictable, and possibly the most fun to watch season in Rangers history. On Thursday, the Rangers begin their bid for their third World Series appearance with a first round playoff matchup against the AL East Champion Toronto Blue Jays.
Left without a true ace after losing ace Pitcher Yu Darvish to Tommy John surgery during spring training, the Rangers were projected by Fangraphs.com to finish 73-89 in a season that many thought would be a second straight losing campaign, after the 2014 season’s fiasco. However, the Rangers, who won the AL West this year, rebounded from an abysmal 7-15 April to claim the division championship from an Astros team that led for the better part of the season.
From finally seeing returns on large investments such as Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo, to the savvy trades negotiated by GM Jon Daniels that vastly improved the pitching staff, to the unexpected contributions of two rookies, centerfielder Delino DeShields Jr. and reliever Keone Kela, the Rangers completed a rapid turnaround as they climbed out of the AL West cellar (where they finished with MLB’s 3rd worst record in 2014) to earn their 4th playoff berth in the last 6 seasons.
To open the AL Divisional Series on Thursday, the Blue Jays will start their ace and Cy Young candidate, David Price, who was acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. The southpaw is 18-5 this season, and he led the AL with a 2.45 ERA. In his one start against the Rangers, he held Texas batters to two runs on five hits over 6 innings, striking out 8 in a Blue Jays win. However, in his 5 playoff starts, he is 0-5 with a middling 5.12 ERA including an 0-3 record with a 4.66 ERA against Texas, which is not exactly ace material.
The Rangers will counter with right-hander Yovani Gallardo (13-11, 3.42 ERA), signed as a free agent before the season. Gallardo has been solid, but unable to pitch deep into games recently. The Rangers hope that he will be able to continue his dominance of the Blue Jays as he went 2-0 and did not allow a run over 13 ⅔ innings against Toronto this year.
A win in the opener would be a crucial first blow to Toronto, and it’s not an impossible feat, despite Price’s imposing regular season statistics. Price’s disappointing postseason résumé combined with Gallardo’s success in limiting the most explosive lineup in baseball should make this a tightly contested matchup. If the Rangers offense can give Gallardo an early lead and Gallardo can protect it for 5 innings, the Rangers’ dynamic bullpen quartet of Keone Kela, Jake Diekman, Sam Dyson, and Shawn Tolleson, who combined for a 2.38 ERA this season, can lead the Rangers to a Game 1 victory.
Game 2’s projected matchup that pits the Ranger’s newly acquired ace Cole Hamels against Toronto’s young phenom Marcus Stroman promises to be yet another pitcher’s duel, as both have been lights-out over the last month of the season. The Rangers have won in all of Hamels’ last 10 starts, and his dominant complete game victory over the Angels sealed the division win for the Rangers. Stroman’s quick return from a torn ACL suffered during spring training infused their pitching staff with new life: Stroman went 4-0, allowing only 5 runs over his 4 starts since coming off the Disabled list.
Sunday’s Game 3 will be hosted by the Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington, and will likely see one of the Rangers’ experienced postseason pitchers in LHP Derek Holland or RHP Colby Lewis face off against the Blue Jays’ Marco Estrada. The Rangers finished the season 27-9 in their last 36 home games, an apparent increase in home field advantage as a factor that could benefit the team given that potential series-winning games 3 and 4 (if necessary) are both at home.
If the series makes it to a Game 5 on Wednesday, the Rangers should be comfortable in sending Hamels out to oppose David Price in a winner-take-all duel of aces, which, although hopefully unnecessary, would be incredibly fun to watch.
Best case scenario: Gallardo and Hamels contain the Blue Jays’ offense enough to win Games 1 and 2, and the Rangers have an opportunity to win the series in a Game 3 or 4 in front of a home crowd, saving Hamels to start Game 1 of the ALCS.
Worst case scenario: The Blue Jays figure out Gallardo, Stroman shuts out the Rangers, and the Toronto offense tees off on Ranger pitching, sweeping the Rangers in 3 games and demonstrating that they are the team to beat in the American League.
My Prediction: Rangers in 5
