Since President Trump began his second administration, you have probably seen a rather viral internet meme showing Chinese president Xi Jinping as a “chad”, with the title “Do nothing, win.” The meme implies that China has essentially won the modern Cold War against the United States, despite not having made any recent major action against the United States. While this is just an internet meme, it could not be more true today. Since President Trump began his crusade to dismantle USAID, pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement and WHO, and has began a quest to slash renewable energy development, China has noticeably been relatively silent. This is not a result of China backing off or respecting the United States, it is China realizing they don’t have to do anything to become equal or superior to the United States, because the second Trump Admin is doing all the work for them.
Foreign Aid
In 2024, China’s most notable form of foreign aid was through the Belt & Road Initiative, a global development project that would see China invest in countries by developing infrastructure and ensure stable trade. According to the Centre for Economics & Research of London, it could increase the global GDP by $7.1 trillion. However, critics state that the Belt & Road Initiative will debt trap countries, and that many of the 117 countries participating in it have conducted numerous human rights violations, China included.
As for the US, USAID spearheaded American foreign aid. In 2024, it accounted for 40% of all foreign aid, making the US the largest provider of foreign aid. While it is true that some foreign aid is questionable, after all, operas in Colombia are hardly a priority, for the most part USAID has been extremely important in fields such as disease prevention, natural disaster response, providing education, and other forms of aid. While critics such as Elon Musk have attempted to discredit USAID by placing an emphasis on “$50M spent on condoms for Gaza” (Said example actually turned out to be $50M on HIV prevention efforts in Gaza Province, Mozambique), USAID is a vital part of US Foreign Policy and not only helps the well-being of millions, but also keeps American interests away from China.
Due to Trump’s wishes to dismantle USAID, he has made China the largest provider of foreign aid, and has ensured that nations that now won’t receive USAID will be sure to turn to China for assistance. Now, China is more than free to develop third-world countries as they wish, and even influence the domestic industrial policies of developing nations because their infrastructure will have been Chinese-built, to Chinese specifications, with Chinese parts. If it is true that the Belt & Road’s initiative is to debt-trap the developing world and place it fully into China’s pocket in a form of neocolonialism, then there is no USAID to oppose it or act as a balance. So, thank you Donald J. Trump for making China the world’s largest provider of foreign aid, free to influence the domestic industrial policies of the developing world, and perhaps free to debt-trap as they please.
Paris Climate Agreement
The Paris Climate Agreement was signed in 2016 with the aim of limiting temperature increase to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Virtually every country in the world is apart of it, save for Iran, Libya, and Yemen. Trump first withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017, yet then Biden rejoined in 2020, and now the US has once more withdrawn. This makes China the most influential nation in the agreement, and the world’s “leader” in the fight against climate change, even though China is the largest polluter in the world. In other words, by withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement and slashing renewable energy funding, Trump has made China the world’s leader in renewable energy development, ensured that there is no legal framework for the US to hold China accountable for their exceedingly high emissions, and has proven themselves to be an untrustworthy ally.
World Health Organization
The US first withdrew from the WHO during the earlier stages of the Covid-19 pandemic, for what President Trump described as “mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic” and in his second withdrawal claims that “the WHO rips us off.” It is true that the US is the largest donor to WHO, having been on track to contributing $706M compared to China’s $184M. It should be noted however that the US is not required to pay this heavy of an amount and did so completely voluntarily.
Considering that the US was paying far more than China, what are the consequences then in regards to China? The WHO is the largest governing body when it comes to public health, and for the longest time, the US had been the most influential within it and the largest contributor. Now, Trump has generously handed it over to China, making them the most influential nation in the WHO, giving them the means to influence international medical development and law. Consequences also exist for the US in the event of a global pandemic. The US’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic was absolutely chaotic, from ignoring scientists and medical professionals, to false claims that horse medicine was the cure for Covid-19. Essentially, by withdrawing from the WHO, the US not only hands the agency to China, but also hinders their own response to a global pandemic due to shutting themselves off from the largest health agency in the world. Is it really a coincidence the US had the largest amount of Covid-19 cases for such a lengthy amount of time?
Trade & Tariffs
Perhaps the only form of major action against China that the Trump administration has made was increasing tariffs on China. Trump has always been a large fan of tariffs, intending to emulate the spirit of the Tariff King himself, President William McKinley (despite McKinley announcing a reversal in his tariff policy in his second term before being assassinated at the 1901 World Fair).
However, his tariffs appear to be proving more detrimental than beneficial. Tariffing major American trade partners like Canada and other major allied trading partners of the US, essentially means that while the US’ international trade is in chaos due to tariffing their own trading partners and raising prices at home during a time of inflation, China can make trade deals with the nations that US tariffs are proving detrimental to. The US’ tariffs also give China the justification to respond with their own tariffs, which they did during the first Trump administration. In regards to Canada, while it is true that Canadian tariffs on US goods will increase the prices of US goods in Canada, Canadians have proven that they will not hesitate to forgo American products. Another negative aspect of tariffs on Canada is that the US receives 60% of all crude oil and gas from Canada, meaning that Trump’s tariffs have increased the price of energy and gas in the US. But hey, lower gas prices on day 1, am I right?
Weakening NATO & Western Alliances
But wait, there’s more! Recently, Trump has proven to be perhaps the most hostile president ever when it comes to the US’ allies in NATO and in the rest of the Western world. His warming up to Vladimir Putin of Russia, ceasing of aid to Ukraine, and 1938 Munich Conference-style talk with Russia in Riyadh more or less proved that Trump’s America is an untrustworthy ally, one that will not have qualms with betraying the countries they have defended so valiantly and then breaking bread with invaders. Considering how cozy the US has become with Russia, this sets a precedent for other nations eyeing foreign territories, such as China. What is to stop China from pressing their territorial water claims against the nations in ASEAN if the US has proven it will not act in defense of its allies? Will Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, the man who cannot even name a single nation in ASEAN take action?
Even if China does not look to press its territorial claims, once more, with the US having proven itself to be an untrustworthy ally, other nations of the world will look towards China. And what reason do they have to not look towards China? China has a large economy, population, industrial base, and a pragmatic government that thinks long-term about what benefits China and what will not. This is the nation that many want to have as their ally. What nations do not want, is one that will happily cease aid and get cozy with invaders.
To Conclude
While the US is politically polarized, cutting aid, hurting its stock market, and hurting its own alliances, China is standing strong across the Pacific Ocean as the largest provider of foreign aid, a leader in renewable energy, and the most influential nation on the WHO. These are gifts from President Trump. Even if when Trump leaves the Oval Office in four years and a president willing to re-establish the US position on the world stage arrives, the damage will still exist. The best case is that all of this is entirely reversible, yet if it is irreversible, then perhaps China has won a new Cold War.
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