After the 2021 Winter Storm Uri, Texas suffered damage worth $10 billion and 246 fatalities, due to water issues and electrical grid failures. After this catastrophe, 70% of Texans believe that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) was responsible for electrical failures. However, 49% of Texans believe that Governor Greg Abbott was responsible for this crisis. As a result, many Texans shifted their views back and forth on who is to be held responsible. The recent winter storms and electrical grid failures definitely will be one of the many pressing topics in future primaries and elections.
The Governor Elections
The Republican Primary
There will be eight Republicans who will run in the Republican primary election on March 1, but three of them have attracted the media’s attention. These candidates are incumbent Greg Abbott, Allen West, and Don Huffines. Many political analysts concluded that Abbott is now facing two strong opponents for the first time since he was governor.
1. From 1996 to 2001, Greg Abbott served as a justice in the Supreme Court of Texas. Before his tenure as governor, Abbott also served as the state’s attorney general. In the past few years, Abbott received endorsements from many Republican leaders such as former President Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz. Currently, Abbott holds $44 million worth in total received contributions.
According to the Texas Politics Project, Greg Abbott’s general approval rating for jobs displays 44% of Texans approving and 42% disapproving. Also, most people appear to approve of Abbott’s economy and public safety management with about or over 50% saying yes. However, Abbott received an equal number of people approving and disapproving his handling of the electric grid crisis.
2. Currently, Don Huffines owns the Huffines Communities, a real-estate development company in the DFW area. From 2015 to 2019, Huffines was a Texas senator serving on behalf of District 16 of the Dallas area. Huffines argues that he ran for governor because Abbott was not “conservative” enough. Finally, Huffines promises to build the wall along Texas’ border with Mexico and ban vaccine mandates. As a result, Huffines received endorsements from Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Currently, Huffines holds $10 million worth in total received contributions.
3. Before being a politician, Allen West was a US Army Lieutenant Colonel who received a Bronze Star and other military decorations after his service in the Iraq War. Afterward, West represented Florida’s 22nd Congressional District from 2011 to 2013. West accused the political leaders in Austin of deliberately shutting down businesses and undermining the natural rights of Texans. As a result, West received endorsements from former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. Currently, West holds $3 million worth in received fundraising.
Predictions for the Republican Candidates
On February 24, Emerson College and The Hill released a poll of 522 Republican primary voters that shows Abbott leading the top 3 Republican candidates at 64%. West and Huffines followed respectively at 14% and 11%. According to The Texas Politics Project, Greg Abbott is leading the Republican primaries with 56% of the vote. West and Huffines only numbered up to 20%. Finally, Abbott will definitely try to turn South Texas counties into red counties due to its historically Democratic-voting population having greater importance in the elections.
Beto O’Rourke’s Challenge
There will be five Democrats who will run in the Democrat primary election on March 1. But, one of these candidates has received the most financial contributions and support for the past few years. This is Beto O’Rourke.
As a former El Paso Congressman, Beto O’Rourke is considered the only major Democrat with political experience to challenge incumbent Greg Abbott. During the 2018 Midterm Elections, O’Rourke only lost to Senator Ted Cruz by 2%. A year later, O’Rourke joined the Democrat presidential primary race, but he suspended his campaign only eight months in. If O’Rourke wants to win, he needs to garner his 2018 coalition that almost defeated Ted Cruz. Also, he must swing enough independents to beat Abbott. Currently, O’Rourke holds $13 million worth in total received contributions.
Predictions for Beto’s run against Abbott
According to a UT/Texas Tribute poll, Beto O’Rourke is still trailing incumbent Gov. Abbott by a 10-point deficit. However, Josh Blank (research director for the Texas Politics Project at UT Austin) stated that the Democrats typically lose by margins less than 10% because public opinion could shift (maybe due to the electric grid failures or recent job approval ratings) either towards Abbott and O’Rourke in the next few months.
The issues that will most likely determine Texas’ next governor include election laws, gun rights, economy, border situation, response to COVID-19, and abortion. All of these topics display strong favorability for incumbent Governor Greg Abbott.
The Lieutenant Governor Elections
Dan Patrick
In 2015, Lieutenant Governor Patrick assumed office in 2015, and his tenure will officially end in 2023. Before running for lieutenant governor in 2015, Patrick was a member of the Texas State Senate, representing District 7. District 7 consists of Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and many other counties. Currently, Patrick received almost $9 million worth in received contributions, outnumbering every Republican and Democrat in terms of fundraising. Overall, Patrick is the most popular candidate for the lieutenant governor race because he has been in the position for eight years.
In terms of popularity, Patrick seems to be leading his Democrat opponents. However, Patrick’s lead is only by a margin of 5% or less. This means that Patrick would most likely make it past his party’s primary, but he will probably be in close contention with the strongest Democrat adversary.
Democrats’ Challenge
There will be four Democrat candidates who will be challenging Patrick’s seat. There is a strong candidate who already ran for lieutenant governor in 2018 when he only lost by less than 5%. His name is Michael Collier. Collier’s professional career prior to running in the race included working as the chief financial officer for Exxon and an auditor of PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Currently, Collier leads the candidates in total received contributions with nearly $1.8 million. Overall, Collier is still favored by most Democrats, despite having lost to Patrick in 2018.
The Attorney General Elections
Republican Primary and Challenges
Paxton’s professional experience begins to grow. This includes working as an attorney, management consultant with Arthur Andersen and in-house legal counsel for JC Penney Company, Inc. Ken Paxton became the attorney general in 2015 and his term will end in January 2023. Paxton succeeded Abbott’s term as attorney general in 2015 because Abbott ran and was elected governor in the same year. From 2003 to 2013, Paxton served in the House of Representatives. At the 2016 Republican National Convention, Paxton was one of the 104 Texan delegates who was bound by state party rules to support Ted Cruz. In 2018, Paxton ran in the Republican primary and defeated Justin Nelson by 3.6%. In 2021, former President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton’s re-election efforts. Currently, Ken Paxton received $5 million in fundraising, which is lower than one of his opponents’$8 million. The candidate with the highest number is Eva Guzman.
Eva Guzman, George P Bush, and Louis Gohmert Jr are the three major candidates who are vying for the attorney general seat against Ken Paxton.
1. Eva Guzman is a former Texas Supreme Court justice from 2009 to 2021. Guzman chose to run because of Paxton’s unsuccessful lawsuits against the federal government relating to his bribery and abuse-of-office allegations. Also, Guzman ran for the additional following reasons: protect the border, push back the federal government’s influence, and support the police. In her efforts to attract more voters in the primary, Guzman criticized Texas Land Commissioner George P Bush for lacking legal experience in management with the Hurricane Harvey recovery funds. Currently, Guzman holds the most received contributions with $8 million.
2. George P Bush was elected as Texas Land Commissioner in 2014. Bush promised to do the following as attorney general: secure the border, support law enforcement, and arrest human traffickers. Lately, Bush has criticized the progressive mayors, such as Austin Mayor Steve Adler for defunding the police department. In 2021, former President Trump was willing to endorse a candidate like Bush or Paxton. Currently, Bush holds $5.7 million in received contributions, a number only trailing Paxton’s by 100k.
3. Before entering politics, Louie Gohmert served as a regular judge. Since 2005, Gohmert represented Texas’ 1st Congressional District. Gohmert ran because he believed that he could “save Texas and the Union”. Gohmert promised to preserve election integrity, fight pandemic and mask mandates, and cease illegal immigration and sanctuary cities.
Predictions for the Republican Primary
Even though many polls think that Ken Paxton will retain his attorney general seat, new polls show that the general race could end in a runoff. The reason for this is because Paxton is under indictment for security fraud and now faces allegations of bribery and abuse of power, as strongly asserted by Republican opponent Eva Guzman.
Democrat Opposition
There are three Democrat candidates displaying significant fundraising and media attention: Rochelle Garza, Joe Jaworski, and Lee Merritt.
1. Rochelle Garza was a former attorney with the Civil Liberties Union. Initially, Garza announced that she would run for Texas’ 34th Congressional District, but she decided to run for attorney general in October 2021. Garza believes that her run can reduce and eliminate the “damage that the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general have done to this state and the harm they’ve done to the people”. Currently, Garza received only $240k worth of fundraising, a number significantly lower than that of Jaworski’s and Merritt’s.
2. Joe Jaworski’s professional experience includes being an attorney and former mayor of Galveston. Jaworski’s campaign included supporting the Affordable Care Act, expanding Medicaid, legalizing recreational marijuana, and supporting the authority of local government. Jaworski thinks that the local decision-making authority has been attacked lately and believes that the local government is the best form of government. Finally, Jaworski believes that Texans can live in comfort under Democrat or Republican jurisdiction, as long as the local government’s presence is in place. Currently, Jaworski leads the Democrat candidates for attorney general in fundraising with over $1 million.
3. As a civil rights attorney, Lee Merritt states that his top priority is expanding voting access to all Texans. Merritt believes that the “essential components of our democracy are at stake, starting with the right to vote.” Currently, Merritt comes in second for fundraising behind Jaworski with nearly $900k.
Conclusion
Overall, many polls from the Texas Politics Project, The Hill, and the Texas Tribune predict that Governor Abbott and other incumbent Republicans will most likely retain their seats. However, there are many new Republican and Democrat challengers who are willing to invest and defeat the current political leaders of Texas. During the process of primaries and debates, the handling of crisis situations (e.g. winter storms) and other topics ranging from gun rights to border management will definitely be critical factors in determining the results of the elections.
Stay tuned to The Roundup for more political updates!
