Last March, I wrote a pretty scathing article criticizing President Trump’s interaction with Ukrainian President Zelensky as childish and diplomatically destructive. But a lot has changed since then, and I thought I should inaugurate another year of The Roundup geopolitical commentary with a short review of the current situation and analysis of Trump’s changed tune toward Ukraine.
As It Stands
Stalemate Status Quo
The war in Ukraine has continued in much the same way it’s played out since March of 2022. Realities like brutal urban fighting in bombed-out industrial towns, suicidal thrusts across open terrain, and the constant buzzing of drones characterize this conflict. The Russian Army has slowly gained ground in the Donbas, throwing monstrous sums of men and materiel at dug-in Ukrainian defenders. The current main battles are those for Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, both of which are fortress towns Russia is working tirelessly to encircle and crush. Progress is glacial, but the momentum is with Russia.
The American About-Face
As of last March, the position of the Trump Administration was seemingly that Volodymyr Zelensky was a dictator and was at fault for starting this war. Since then, President Trump has made some discoveries. At first, he tried pressuring Ukraine to the table. After some reluctance and aid pauses, Ukraine was convinced to publicly support a 30-day ceasefire. So Trump now moved on to get Putin to the table. It was here that, after constant meaningless negotiations, he realized Putin didn’t actually want peace, and was just toying with him. Reportedly encouraging this change of heart was none other than our First Lady, whom the Ukrainian people have jokingly designated “Agent Melania Trumpenko”.
Since recognizing what Putin’s gameplan actually is, Trump has turned to a more aggressive, Pro-Ukrainian method of negotiation. He signed an agreement with the Europeans where the U.S. sells massive quantities of equipment to European countries, which then ship that to Ukraine. And, critically, he placed crippling tariffs on India for it’s bulk purchasing of Russian oil. Which leads us to the two recent summits between Trump and the belligerents of this three-and-a-half-year war.
The Dividends of Diplomacy
By August, Trump had announced a coming summit with Putin in Alaska. He talked down the significance of the meeting as it approached, saying it was designed to “get Putin back to the table”, not to create an immediate peace deal. So the summit came and went, with the only major shift in U.S. policy being to favor a finalized peace deal as opposed to a ceasefire.
Then came Monday’s summit between Trump, Zelensky, and the Europeans. This one was more of a “team huddle” than a peace summit, but it produced significant results regardless. The big news out of that meeting was the peacekeeping force set to be established in the event of a peace deal being signed between Ukraine and Russia. If that deal is actually reached, a sizeable coalition of European countries would deploy ground forces to Ukraine. While Trump has said U.S. ground forces will not be deployed there, he talked of potentially sending the Air Force to keep Ukraine’s skies Russia-free. By putting European troops between Russia and Ukraine, NATO can guarantee that a second invasion of Ukraine would mean war with the alliance, something Putin isn’t insane enough to attempt.
The summit Trump has yet to make happen is that ever-elusive trilateral meeting between Zelensky, himself, and Putin. It’s slated to happen sometime vaguely soon, and the White House put out a press release saying Putin has agreed to such a parley. Hopefully it results in something meaningful, for the sake of the civilians dodging Russian missiles and the soldiers rotting away in trenches. Putin’s demands are still delusional, but perhaps he can be pressured into giving up the most egregious of his war goals. Only time will tell.
What it All Means
At a 30,000 foot level, this flurry of activity matters quite a bit even if it doesn’t result in an immediate deal. It represents a number of things for Ukraine, the U.S., Russia, and the rest of the world.
For one, it tells the world that Trump won’t be as isolationist as some feared. I, for one, feared Trump would abandon Ukraine to its fate. That isn’t what happened. Trump has taken a keen interest in personally intervening in this war, and has kept the weapons flowing (even if they aren’t free anymore). America isn’t gone from the world stage, though she might be a less generous “god” than she was previously.
For another thing, it represents the “Pacific Pivot” Republicans have talked about since the Iraq War’s end. The idea of refocusing the U.S. from Europe and the Middle East toward countering China has been a mainstream idea for a while, but every time we try and act on it, some catastrophe in the Middle East flares up, or some Eastern European dictator acts up. By getting the Europeans to pay for American aid to Ukraine and to staff the peacekeeping mission, Trump has freed up resources for the potential coming confrontation with the Chinese.
So while I stand by my criticism of Trump’s behavior in March, I commend him for his change in heart. He’s kept Ukrainian aid going, and convinced someone else to pay for it. He’s encouraging the formation of a European peacekeeping force potentially backed by American air power, and is, at the very least, closer to ending the conflict than anyone else has been in three years.
