It was announced on Friday, September 2, 2022, that the NCAA Division I college football would be expanding. The new format follows a twelve team format, eight more teams than the previous format, and is set to take place starting in 2026, though there will be discussion of implementing the new plan as early as 2024.
The plan states that the six highest ranked conference champions, probably each Power Five conference champion plus a Group of Five conference champion, will have an automatic bid at the playoffs. The four highest ranked conference champions will also be a top four and have a first round bye. The other two conference champions, plus six at large selections, will play in the second or third week in December for an opportunity to play in the semifinals. The semifinals and some quarter finals will be played in a New Years six bowl games, while the remaining games will either be played on campus or at a site of the higher seed’s choosing.
This plan originally started to take shape last year, however it got major pushback, primarily from the Pac-12 and Big Ten conferences. After a summer of potential conference realignments however, both now support the expansions.
The Pac-12 put out a statement saying, “The Pac-12 is strongly in favor of CFP expansion and welcomes the decision of the CFP Board. CFP expansion will provide increased access and excitement and is the right thing for our student-athletes and fans.” This may come as a shock to some, as the Pac-12 once opposed the expansion, however the loss of USC and UCLA moving to the Big Ten in 2024 was likely the turning point for the PAc-12 to be in favor of expansion. Prior to the departure of USC and UCLA, the Pac-12 usually had at least one good shot at the playoffs each year with Oregon, USC, UCLA, and recently Utah all being strong options for a playoff spot. With two of those teams leaving however, their chances greatly decrease as they not only have lost two great football programs but also strength of schedule for their remaining candidates. Even if say Utah proved to be a very good team in 2026, their biggest in conference opponent would be Oregon. One win against a top-25 team is not enough to justify a team being top four, no matter the talent. With the new playoff model, there is almost certainty in making the playoffs each year.
Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren said that the CFP expansion “is excellent for college football, and excellent for the Big Ten Conference.” It is great for the Big Ten because with the additions of USC and UCLA they have increased their chances of getting as many as three or four teams in the playoffs in one year as opposed to the basically guaranteed cap of one previously held for the conference. Even if the USC and UCLA teams continue to a a healthy level of mediocre, having three or four losses in a season, this still benefits the Big Ten with providing an increased strength of schedule for teams like Ohio State and Michigan.
What This Means
The big winner of the expanded playoffs is the SEC. Prior to the change, the SEC was basically guaranteed a playoff spot each year and was fighting for two spots. Under the new format, the SEC will likely have as many as four or five teams in the playoffs some years, especially with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma.
Other big winners of the change include Group of Five schools. These teams have a history of questionable rankings by the selection committee, people thinking they were ranked either took high or too low. Often, the teams have been left out of the playoffs and people wondered how they would have been in the playoffs, or they were let in the playoffs then proceed to get blown out. With this new model, Group of Five teams have greatly increased their odds at a playoff spot, the committee not having to justify ranking them in the top four and instead placing them as a lower eight seed.
This does mean however that Group of Five coaches are on thinner ice now because there is no excuse to not make the playoffs, where before it was understandable that the committee would not respect them.
This comes at a bad time however, as many of the better group of five teams, such as Cincinnati and the University of Central Florida have recently announced a move to the Big 12.
My Thoughts
I am excited at the prospect of expanding the playoffs, however am disappointed in the plan they choice. I have always enjoyed when some of the “underdogs” made it to the playoffs, even when they got blown out first round, because it was a change from the previous monotonous years of the same two or three teams. Even though the top four or five teams may stay the same, the at large teams will often change, which will be interesting.
I was in favor of a six team playoff, with all six seeds being at large selections, with the first and second teams receiving byes. I was also unopposed to an eight team model with the Power Five conference champions making it in plus three at large teams. I am not a fan however of the twelve team format.
The twelve team format provides an opportunity for many underdogs and many more teams to make it in, although no team past maybe the five seed will ever win it. A popular thing with March Madness is that it provides an opportunity for “cinderella” teams, however very, very rarely do those teams ever win it all. They can make deep runs, however they never win it all. With the new system, a for a team to be considered a “cinderella” team they really only have to win one upset. That is good, because that is as far as they will go.
There is always a clear difference between the top four teams and those who are not, and even in the top four there is a major difference in talent and coaching. The expansion is not really giving more schools an opportunity to win the championship because it will always be the same two or three teams each year.
The problem is that high school recruits know that they need to go to certain schools for a chance at a championship trophy, and they will always choose those schools, no matter how big the playoffs are.
We need to be honest and call this what it is: a plan to make the schools more money. Nothing more. While yes, I am a fan of it purely because it provides more football to watch, it is still just a plan to make more money because everyone knows it will be the same teams winning year after year.
