The 2026 Midterm Elections are shaping up to be a blowout against the Republican Party. In the 2025 November Special Elections, the Democrats swept all of the Virginia elected office races (Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General) and won the New Jersey Gubernatorial race as well. The gubernatorial victories were especially commanding, as Democrats won by at least 13 points in what were supposed to be close races. Republicans will likely lose the house in 2026, but there remains a single saving grace for them: it will take a herculean effort by the Dems to flip the Senate.
Tough Senatorial Slate for the Dems
To even have a chance at flipping the Senate, the Democrats will need to sweep all of the “swing states” in the Senate election, those being Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia. Then, to get just a simple majority, the Dems will have to flip at least 3 historically Republican voting Senate seats from Maine, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Nebraska, and Alaska. The Dems will need every conceivable edge that they can get to flip the Senate, and that brings us back to the two-horse race for the Democratic Texas Senate nominee.
The Candidates
Jasmine Crockett
Anybody who has paid any attention at all to the House of Representatives in the last year needs no introduction to Jasmine Crockett. She’s made a name for herself in the Democratic Party as an Anti-Trump firebreather during his second term in office, constantly trading verbal jabs with the president. her campaign is looking to parlay the current anti-Trump political environment into a Senate bid: Her announcement video for her Senate run contained no actual policy promises and instead opted for a 45-second slow zoom-in on her face as mixtape of Trump’s insults against her played in the background.
James Talarico
Talarico is the “outsider” choice for the nomination. He was previously a Democrat representative in the Texas state legislature, and prior to that taught English at Rhodes Middle School in San Antonio. His campaign moves in a different election than Texas Dems in years prior; Talarico seeks to blend Christianity with economically populist messaging. His campaign announcement video featured him discussing the linkage between Christianity and economic progressivism.
Platforms
Both candidates hold very stereotypical democratic views with some slight variations between the two candidates. Both wish to expand Medicare, both seek to put restrictions on ICE, and both want to reinforce a foreign policy centered around liberal institutionalism. One of the first major breaks in policy is on their stances towards Israel; James Talarico has called for an offensive arms embargo on the Middle Eastern state, whilst Jasmine Crockett has supported sending more money towards Israel’s government. Another difference in policy is their positions regarding campaign funding and big money in politics. Talarico has, quite impressively, financed his campaign solely through individual donations, accepting no corporate, PAC, or Super PAC money to run his campaign. Additionally, he has advocated for banning members of elected offices from trading stocks whilst in office. Crockett does not share the same ideas when it comes to funding and stock trading; she has accepted funding corporate and PAC money, along with continuing to trade stocks while she was a sitting member of Congress.
Debate
On Saturday, January 24th, Talarico and Crockett met in Georgetown, Texas for the first and only Texas Senate Democratic Primary Debate. Both sides remained cordial to each other throughout the course of the debate, a good sign for after the primary. Crockett focused on her record battling Trump and the Republicans in DC, whilst Talarico leaned into his Christian Economic Populist ideas. On the topic of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Talarico stated that he wished to tear down the “secret police force” and replace it with a brand-new agency that “actually is going to focus on public safety.”. Crockett a bit more “moderate” approach, saying that there is definitely a need to “clean house” in the agency, but stopping short from calling for the agency’s abolition. Talarico also defended his controversial support for legalizing gambling in Texas, stating that it would bring much needed tax revenue to the state.
Allred Drama
On February 2nd, political influencer Morgan Thompson posted a TikTok in which she claimed that Talarico called 2024 Texas Democratic Senate nominee Collin Allred a “mediocre black man” after a Town Hall event in Plano, Texas on January 12th. Shortly after the TikTok was posted, Collin Allred slammed Talarico in a video posted to X.com, in which he also officially endorsed Jasmine Crockett. Shortly thereafter, the Talarico campaign clarified that James had referred to Allred’s method of campaigning as mediocre, and not the person himself.
The Colbert Interview
On Monday, February 16th, Stephen Colbert announced live on his show, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, that CBS had prohibited him from having James Talarico on as a guest, due to FCC guidelines requiring equal airtime be given to opposing candidates, such as Jasmine Crockett. A day later on February 17th, a full fifteen-minute interview with Talarico was published to The Late Night with Stephen Colbert YouTube channel, where it has since amassed 8.8 million views in six days. While the FCC and Trump administration cite the FCC guidelines as reasoning for pulling the interview, Talarico has posted on social media that the real reason the interview was pulled is because “Trump is worried that we’re about to flip Texas.” Talarico used the interview to condemn “Christian Nationalism” within the Trump administration, as well as to highlight his populist economic message and reiterate his campaign’s statement regarding the Allred drama from prior in February.
Baggage
Talarico
Talarico comes into the campaign with relatively little political baggage. The biggest problem his campaign faces is his previous acceptance of money from Miriam Adelson, owner of the Dallas Mavericks and notorious Trump supporter. Adelson has previously stated that she wouldn’t mind if Trump sought a third term as president. Talarico claims that he took the money solely to promote the passage of legislation legalizing gambling in the state of Texas and does not agree with Adelson on any other issues.
Crockett
Crockett comes into this campaign with more political experience than Talarico, but this also means that she has more political baggage as well. Crockett has been a vocal supporter of Israel in their conflict with Gaza and has continuously voted in Congress to send more offensive weaponry to Israel. This especially hurts her chances with the Gen-Z demographic, who are far more pro-Palestine than other age groups. Additionally, Crockett has had to backtrack comments from April of 2025 in which she stated that she supported new immigration from Mexico, because “We [black people] are done picking cotton.”. This comment has haunted Crockett, especially with Texas’ large Latino population that she will need to win over if she wants to have any hope of winning the state.
The X-Factor
There is one key factor that, if it swung the Democrats way, could be the final boost needed for the Democrats to finally win a statewide election in Texas for the first time in the 21st century. That factor is: Ken Paxton. Paxton, a hardline MAGA loyalist, is challenging incumbent Republican John Cornyn for the Senate seat, along with the less-extreme Wesley Hunt. With no poll showing any of the three candidates to be a clear favorite heading into election day, it is almost certain that a runoff will occur. If Paxton does end up winning the Texas Primary outright or in the runoff, that could lead to more moderate Republicans either sitting out the election or flipping to the Dems. Combined with one of the most anti-Republican midterm environments that we’ve seen in a while, Paxton getting the nod in the Republican primary could be all that is needed to push the Dems over the top and give them their first statewide victory in Texas this millennium.
Final Thoughts
While Chuck Schumer and other Democratic party leaders are opting to let the primary play its course without endorsing either candidate, former Presidential candidate Kamala Harris endorsed Jasmine Crockett on February 28th.Early voters are rolling in for Texas, and neither candidate has emerged as the true frontrunner in polling, with some (Blueprint Polling) showing Talarico up by 12 points, and others (University of Texas – Tyler) showing
Crockett up by 18. The EV period is giving mixed signals to both sides; large, majority black precincts such as Tarrant County and Dallas County have shown up in record number (good sign for Crockett) but so have southwestern areas such as the Rio Grande Valley, which skew Hispanic and are very likely to swing in Talarico’s favor. Ballots will start being counted on March 3rd, the last day for in-person voting. Something very remarkable has happened in the early voting period for Democrats in Texas; for the first time this millennium, they are leading in early primary votes casted, 53% to 47%. While the Republicans could still catch up with a strong election day turnout, it is a great sign for a Democrat party looking to gain senate seats wherever they can get them this cycle. For students interested in voting in the General Election this November, you can see if you are registered to vote at www.texas.gov/living-in-texas/texas-voter-registration/.
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