With the 2025-26 NBA season opening on October 21 with the Oklahoma City Thunder hosting the Houston Rockets, it’s time to review which teams have the best shot to win the title this year. There will be some familiar names on this list, but also some dark horses that not a lot of people are high on. Along with each team on this list, will be their biggest X-factor, which will affect the team the most.
Honorable Mentions:
Dallas Mavericks:
I think the Mavericks have a chance to rally around Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis and shock a lot of people, potentially contending for a championship, but I can’t put them top 10 on the list with Kyrie recovering from a serious injury.
Atlanta Hawks:
Again, in a weak East, the Hawks have a solid roster who could hold a Top 4 seed in the conference, but they are relying too hard on Kristaps Porzingis, who has had major injuries hold him back in recent years.
Golden State Warriors:
I actually do not like the Warriors’ roster at all, but I feel like considering how good they were to end the year last season, I can’t put them out of the top 13 just yet. However, look for age to hold them back heavily this year.
10) Los Angeles Lakers
Biggest X-Factor: DeAndre Ayton
The Los Angeles Lakers started free agency off pretty slow, signing Jake LaRavia and not much else. However, after two contract buyouts of pretty decent players on bad teams, the Lakers were able to scoop up Marcus Smart, and DeAndre Ayton to fill the gaping hole at center that Anthony Davis left. The Lakers, in theory, have a pretty good roster. I just don’t see them surpassing some of the other teams on this list. They have some major defensive issues, and DeAndre Ayton is not some elite center like Lakers fans will have you believe. I also don’t feel like the Lakers actually addressed any of their main issues from last year’s playoffs. They may have gotten a decent big man on paper, but DeAndre Ayton’s actual skill level is overblown by playing on a bad team for two years. However, if Ayton can be what the Suns expected from him when they drafted him, I could see the Lakers being a top 3 seed in the West.
9) Orlando Magic
Biggest X-Factor: Desmond Bane’s Shooting
The Magic were middle of the pack last season, finishing the regular season 41-41 and making the playoffs as the 7th seed. They were then eliminated in a quick 4-1 series against the then defending-champion Celtics. However, they had major injuries to both Paolo Banchero and Moritz and Franz Wagner. This offseason, however, they added key pieces to bolster their roster. They addressed their shooting woes by adding Desmond Bane, Jase Richardson, and Tyus Jones. Bane is one of the better shooters in the league, Jase is an exciting rookie sharpshooter, and Tyus Jones is a solid catch and shoot guy. The Magic should be able to capitalize off of a weak East and at the very least be a top 4 seed and win a playoff series. They still have their gritty defensive prowess, add in some key offensive attackers, and I see bright things out of this Orlando team.
8) Detroit Pistons
Biggest X-Factor: Duncan Robinson’s Shooting
The Detroit Pistons were one of the best stories from last year. They went from a 14 win team that lost 28 straight games at one point to a 44 win team who took the New York Knicks to 6 close games. Now, in that series, their youth and inexperience went into full effect, but regardless, they had a great year and are poised to improve even more in a weak East. In the offseason, they lost Tim Hardaway Jr, and a gambling controversy pretty much guaranteed that they lost Malik Beasley as well. However, they acquired and extended Duncan Robinson from the Heat. If he can replace Hardaway and Beasley’s three-point shooting, then the Pistons should be just fine. I could see them winning 50 games and maybe a playoff series. Cade Cunningham is a dark horse MVP candidate, and he has blossomed phenomenally in Detroit. Piston fans should be extremely excited about what the Pistons have brewing this year.
7) Los Angeles Clippers
Biggest X-Factor: Kawhi’s Punishment From NBA
The Clippers had a stellar offseason after a bit of a disappointing first round exit last year. The Clippers added Brook Lopez and Chris Paul, as well as trading Norman Powell for John Collins. They also resigned James Harden. Now, the joke of the NBA is that the Clippers are now a team full of old guys. However, they are a team full of some of the best old guys in the league. Kawhi, Harden, Lopez, and Paul are all still good players. Part of me thinks this Clippers team will have elite chemistry and it might finally be the year they make it past the first round and possibly to the Finals behind a healthy Kawhi playoff run. The other part of me thinks this will all be a failure and is just setting up the eventual Clippers rebuild come next year. Now, Kawhi’s Aspiration controversy needs to get figured out, because it is still on the table that Kawhi will have his contract voided. Though unlikely, that would completely shake up the Clippers entire roster.
6) Minnesota Timberwolves
Biggest X-Factor: Anthony Edward’s Development
The Minnesota Timberwolves honestly had a pretty bad offseason, losing Nikheil Alexander-Walker to the Hawks and doing not much else. But to be honest, I can’t doubt Anthony Edwards after his last two stellar years. I think there’s room for this team to be in the honorable mentions, but if Edwards answers the call and takes Minnesota to a top 3 seed in the West, I’m not going to be on the side of people saying they were going to struggle. They have a young MVP candidate who can play both sides of the court. When you have a top guy, you have a chance to win a ton of games. Now, with a full offseason of chemistry-building with Julius Randle, the Timberwolves are primed to return to the form that they had in last year’s playoffs. However, if Anthony Edwards was lying about how hard he would work in the offseason, they might just fall right back down to the play-in tournament. That would be too big of a step down for the Timberwolves and would probably result in a bit of a roster shakeup.
5) Cleveland Cavaliers
Biggest X-Factor: Staying Motivated
The Cleveland Cavaliers had one of their best regular season performances in franchise history last season, winning 64 games and securing the number one seed in the East. And though they met their playoff match against Tyrese Haliburton’s Pacers, they still had a phenomenal season they should be proud of. Evan Mobley had a breakout year. Darius Garland had a bounce back year. Ty Jerome had a career year. That said, now they’ve gotta do it all again, this time without Ty Jerome on their roster. It can be hard to visualize going through a whole season again just to get a chance at starting where you left off. But, Cleveland, don’t get discouraged by last year’s end. Get motivated and excited to come back even stronger. Their team is still good. They’ve still got tons of talent and chemistry. I believe if they stay willing to dominate like last year, then they will dominate like last year. And if everyone stays healthy, then Cleveland will by playing for a title come April just like last year.
4) Houston Rockets
Biggest X-Factor: Whoever Is Starting Point Guard
The Rockets are one of my favorite wild cards for this NBA season. And not just because of the Kevin Durant trade. Kevin Durant brings consistency, shooting, and leadership to a team that lacked all three of those things last season. Beyond that, the Rockets added Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela, Josh Okogie, and Jeff Green. They have built defensive toughness and scoring into a perfect blend. However, during the offseason, Fred VanVleet tore his ACL and is now out for the year. So, whoever they start at point guard has to answer the call. Whether it’s Reed Shepard, Josh Okogie, Aaron Holiday, whatever. They need to be able to feed Durant and the other scorers on the team. They have to bring defensive stability and be able to contain the opposing players. If they are able to seamlessly replace Fred VanVleet, there is no doubt in my mind the Rockets will be just as good as the Thunder or Nuggets.
3) New York Knicks
Biggest X-Factor: Mike Brown
The New York Knicks surprised a lot of people when they fired coach Tom Thibodeau after he coached them to their first conference finals since 1999. Yes, he had his flaws: playing his stars too much, not using his bench. But he still helped them win 51 games and clinch the number 3 seed in the East. He also coached them past the defending champion Boston Celtics. However, the Knicks weren’t satisfied, and opted to sign former coach of the year Mike Brown to run the show. Also, they added Jordan Clarkson, Alex Len, and Geurschon Yabusele to bolster the bench unit. Now, the Knicks are looking like the best team in the East, with only the Cleveland Cavaliers remotely in the same tier as them. However, Mike Brown has to be as advertised for this team to be championship contenders. If he isn’t as much of an improvement over Tom Thibodeau as the Knicks thought, I don’t see them improving that much as a team either.
2) Denver Nuggets
Biggest X-Factor: The Bench Unit
The Denver Nuggets may have had the best offseason of Jokic’s career. Let me just recap real quick. They traded possibly the worst contract in the league in Michael Porter Jr for a younger better version of MPJ in Cam Johnson. They signed former champion with the Nuggets Bruce Brown Jr. They signed Detroit sharpshooter Tim Hardaway Jr to a contract. Finally, they traded Dario Saric for Jonas Valunciunas to backup Nikola Jokic. This is the first time in Jokic’s prime that he has had a legit backup center to assist the bench unit when Jokic is off the floor. The Nuggets now have possibly the best roster in the league. I could see them challenging the Thunder for the best in the West and possibly winning it all come April. Obviously, everyone needs to stay healthy for this to work out, but if they do, look for Denver to be in the mix for NBA Champions.
1) Oklahoma City Thunder
Biggest X-Factor: Key Players’ Health
What a surprise, the defending NBA champions show up number one on the list. Well, there is not much evidence for other teams to be ahead of OKC. The Thunder ran through everybody last year in the Regular Season, en route to a Playoff run in which OKC went 16-7 throughout the entire Playoffs. They had home court advantage through the playoffs, and they won 68 games. This is the second year in a row where the biggest X-factor for the number one seed is their health. I mean, as we saw with Boston last year, they were just one Tatum injury away from possibly being in the Finals again. So, as long as the Thunder stay healthy throughout the regular season and playoffs, I see no argument for any team being above them until they prove it. If OKC can avoid the Nuggets and the Rockets until the Conference Finals, they should be primed to be championship contenders and favorites for this year.
Final Thoughts
And there it is, the Top 10 teams in the league, ranked from 10 to 1. Now, of course this will change as the season goes on, so we will see how that goes. Every year there are teams that don’t live up to expectations, so we’ll check in on those as well. Be sure to watch out for the In-Season Tournament as well!
Stay tuned into The Roundup for more NBA coverage!