This NFL playoff season, for the third time since 1990, all division-winning teams survived to the divisional round of the playoffs. Although that usually makes for a predictable and easy wildcard round, this past weekend was anything but predictable: quarterback Tim Tebow once again magically led the Denver Broncos to another late win over the heavily favored Steelers, sealing the deal with an eighty yard touchdown strike to Demaryius Thomas on the first play of overtime. If the first round is any preview of what we should expect this weekend in the divisional round, we are in for a wild weekend. Here are my picks for this weekend’s games:
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
Matchup
It took the Saints thirty-five second half points to beat the young and hungry Detroit Lions in the wildcard round, but don’t count on a similar influx of second half scoring this Saturday when they travel to San Francisco to face a 49ers team that ranks 4th in yards allowed and 2nd in touchdowns allowed this season. However, the Saints can match the 49ers stingy defense with their 1st ranked passing offense led by MVP candidate Drew Brees and tight end Jimmy Graham.
What to Watch For
Keep an eye on how 49ers quarterback Alex Smith handles the pressure of his first playoff start. While the Niners have depended on their running game all year, Smith has had easily his best season in the NFL. He has been very efficient, compiling a 61.3 completion percentage and only 5 interceptions. Smith could have his chance to really shine this weekend as the Saints secondary ranks 30th in yards allowed. He will have to succeed if the Niners want to keep pace with the Saints.
Prediction
Saints- 24, 49ers- 20. The Niners fight hard for new coach Jim Harbaugh, but Brees stays too hot and leads the Saints into the NFC Championship.
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Matchup
Who would have thought in October, or even last week, that the Broncos would be heading to Foxborough for a playoff game? That’s the situation thanks to the late-game heroics of the biggest name in sports this week, Tim Tebow. This week the Broncos will have an even stiffer challenge as they play Tom Brady and the Patriots on the road. The Broncos come in with the best running game in the league and the second worst passing game, although they played like they had one of the best passing attacks last week. The Patriots beat the Broncos handily in Week 13, 41-23, but have not beaten one team all year that finished with a winning record.
What to Watch For
Watch out for interceptions, especially from Tim Tebow. Tebow didn’t throw one pick Sunday night and that was as integral to their victory as his 316 passing yards. As long as Tebow avoids making mistakes against a flimsy but hawkish Patriots secondary that has the 2nd most interceptions this year, we may be seeing him again next weekend.
Prediction
Patriots- 31, Broncos- 17. Tebow-time runs out as Brady proves he’s still the superior quarterback and star.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Matchup
The Texans are looking to build off the franchise’s first-ever playoff victory as they head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. Led by their 3rd string rookie quarterback T.J. Yates, the Texans offense will try to move the ball against the Ravens defense which ranks top 5 in both opponents rushing yards per game and opponents passing yards per game. The offenses are pretty even offensively, both sporting top 10 rushing attacks and the 18th and 19th most passing yards per game.
What to Watch For
This matchup pins two of the league’s best running backs against each other, Arian Foster for Houston and Ray Rice for Baltimore. Rice ranks 2nd in the league with 1,364 yards and 4.7 yards a carry while Foster ranks 5th with 1,224 yards and 4.4 yards a carry. Houston also has backup running back Ben Tate, who played great while Foster was injured early this year, averaging 5.4 yards a carry and gaining 942 yards, good for 19th in the league. Whichever team can get their running game going early should have a huge advantage throughout the game.
Prediction
Baltimore- 20, Houston- 17. Baltimore’s veteran defense led by a now healthy Ray Lewis carries them to the AFC championship.
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
Matchup
The reigning champs are in for a challenge Sunday afternoon as the Giants visit Lambeau Field after a 24-2 thrashing of the Falcons. The Packers feature the league’s best scoring offense, which puts up an average of 35 points a game, led by MVP frontrunner Aaron Rodgers, who has set an NFL record with his 122.5 passer rating. The Packers are as healthy as they have been since Week 1 and will be getting many key starters back such as receiver Greg Jennings, tackle Chad Clifton, and defensive tackle Ryan Pickett. The Giants, however, come in confident not just because of their dominant victory last Sunday but because in Week 13 of the regular season they took the champs down to the wire, barely losing 38-35. Quarterback Eli Manning has been on fire, throwing 3 touchdowns last week, and the Giants receiving crew featuring Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz has played spectacular as well with 3 receivers averaging over 13 yards a catch.
What to Watch For
The Packers offensive line will be tested big time this weekend. The Giants defensive line has proven it is the best in the league by posting 7 QB hits last week on Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan and by finishing 3rd in the league in sacks this season. The Packers offensive line has been extremely beat up these last couple of weeks, and the return of veteran starter Chad Clifton will be huge. He will have to get his game feet back in a hurry or else Aaron Rodgers could be in for a long and painful day.
Prediction
Packers- 34, Giants- 31. Another down-to-the-wire game, but Rodgers shows why he should win the MVP award.
