As the midterms are quickly approaching, polls have increasingly shifted in favor of a Republican victory over the Democratic Party. Currently, Democrats control both houses of Congress and the White House. Thus, the days of unilateral passage of Democratic legislation may soon be coming to a close. This is primarily due to one of the most historical predictors of election outcomes and economic stability. When the economy appears strong, the party in control typically remains such. Though in a time like this in which millions have struggled to make ends meet, the majority of the American party appeared to be fed up with the Democrats.

Some Disinformation

You may have been confused a couple of months ago when the White House declared that we were not actually in a recession. This is despite the term’s accepted definition of a period of GDP regression across 2 consecutive quarters. Though the Democrats have pointed to low unemployment rates to argue that we are not in one. This unemployment rate that is expected by many to skyrocket as the struggling economy catches up with COVID’s strange effects on unemployment. Despite this, Republicans argue that at this time, the economy should be in a period of prosperity rather than downfall due to the reopening of the economy, which indicates a complete failure on the Democrats’ part. In fact, the Biden administration has maintained the position that the economy is extremely strong. However, this gaslighting by the White House has failed to fool a large percentage of Americans, who have noticed their 401k’s evaporating and gas prices skyrocketing since Biden and his Democratic majority congress were sworn in a couple of years ago.

The White House has also taken advantage of extremely misleading statistics to swindle American voters throughout the president’s last couple of years in office. This is because the booming economy under Trump was wrecked by the policies enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, the extremely restrictive lockdown policies were largely enacted by Democratic states. Over the course of the pandemic, unemployment skyrocketed not only due to fear of the pandemic, but also programs like lucrative unemployment benefits. These attractive payouts encouraged many, who would’ve otherwise returned to work much earlier to leisurely rake in their benefits. Thus, Biden’s touting of the fastest creation of manufacturing jobs in 40 years compared to Trump’s net loss leaves out the necessary context of the pandemic still being an ongoing concern into the 2020 presidential election at which time many of these workers had not returned to work yet.

Furthermore, one of Biden’s main campaign points was the Trump administration’s mishandling of the pandemic, claiming that he would fix it if elected. However, Biden failed to do so with far more Americans dying from COVID-19 under Biden than in the Trump administration despite Pfizer, J&J, and Moderna vaccines rolling out prior to Biden’s inauguration.

Match these factors with one of Biden’s other main campaign points: immigration. An originally inviting attitude toward immigration at the beginning of the Biden administration turned disastrous as the border crisis quickly devolved into a horrible crisis. These factors have compounded to make Biden’s originally positive approval rating based largely on these “promises” plummet.

Falling out of Favor

While Biden came out the gates with a 55% percent approval rating according to RealClearPolitics aggregate polling, he has since dipped below 37% approval during the majority of his tenure. This should not be a shock as his original platform claiming him to be a moderate has since devolved into bipartisan slander disguised in the façade of trying to unite the country. For instance, Biden has recently claimed MAGA Republicans are a “clear and present danger” to democracy in his September Soul of the Nation Speech. Biden’s comments about a large percentage of Americans don’t seem to be sitting well and certainly don’t reflect a moderate and peaceful harmony with the opposing party. Along with these pitfalls and growing concerns over the president’s mental acuity, dissatisfaction with the Democratic Congress has also risen.

One of the most divisive bills by this congress was the Inflation Reduction Act, which was criticized for its attempts to curb inflation by spending large sums of money on government programs. However, it is that excessive spending and printing of money due to the pandemic with things like the Democratic-sponsored stimulus packages that resulted in sky-high inflation in the first place.

Major Races

Senate

Despite a large number of Senate races occurring across the country this election cycle, there are only about six worth discussing. However, the importance of these races cannot be understated enough. With a currently split Senate in favor of the Democratic party due to Harris’ tie-breaking vote, any net pickup will shift the Senate into the hands of the Republicans. Most notable among these six are the matchups in Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Out of these four total toss-ups, three are currently held by incumbent Democrats. Thus, if Republicans can hold the Pennsylvania seat and pick up just one of the other three, the Republicans are likely to secure a Senate victory. Over the last month, polls have moved heavily in favor of the Republicans to win the Senate. RealClearPolitics estimates that Republicans will walk away with 53 seats, and 538’s predictor has 51 scenarios in which the GOP take the Senate compared to 49 in which the Democratic Party does.

Georgia

Walker v. Warnock is a battle that has raised much controversy. Several allegations were made against Walker because he encouraged women to perform abortions in the past while presenting a firm pro-life stance on stage (all of these allegations have been denied by Walker). In addition, Warnock’s pro-abortion stance draws backlash due to being a Christian pastor. The issue of abortion has been a major point of contention in this election. After their recent debate, Walker has overtaken and built a lead on Warnock in the polls despite the simultaneous surfacing of these allegations. Thus, at the moment, both FiveThirtyEight’s and RealClearPolitics’ prediction models have this race going in favor of the former NFL running back over Democratic incumbent Warnock. A victory in this race would deal a defeating blow to the Democrat’s chances to maintain control of the Senate.

Pennsylvania

The Pennsylvania race between former TV celebrity Dr. Oz and Democratic candidate Fetterman will certainly be one of the most interesting come election night. Currently, held by a Republican, the senate seat offers the Democrats a buffer in terms of losing one of the other hotly contested seats. At this moment, FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics disagree on the race’s outcome with FiveThirtyEight projecting it as a Democratic pickup while RealClearPolitics estimates it to be a Republican hold largely based on major polling biases toward Democrats in the previous election cycles. Furthermore, the race has picked up more national attention as of late due to concern over Fetterman’s mental acuity following a stroke he suffered earlier this year. Videos of his gaffes during the debate raised concerns amongst the American public, who watched in horror as he responded to questions such as those about his position on fracking. Regarding fracking, he responded three times to the question in a row. Combined with his necessitating a teleprompter during the debate and interviews, voters must also consider the candidate’s fitness for office alongside their political sidings.

Nevada and Arizona

Though not as much of a public spectacle, the Nevada and Arizona races are just as crucial in the pursuit of securing control of the Senate. At this time, RealClearPolitics also has these two seats flipping Republican while FiveThirtyEight predicts that a Democratic victory in Arizona is more likely.

House of Representatives

The real Republican tidal wave is expected to strike in the house elections with the Republicans currently polling at an overall 4-point lead in the generic popular vote margin. In the past, a lead of any sort by Republicans in the generic polls has spelled disaster for the Democratic Party. Furthermore, RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight mutually agree that Republicans could lose all of the “tossups” and still be victorious in the house. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Republicans a whopping 83 in 100 chance of assuming control of the house in this election cycle, likely in grand proportions.

Conclusion

Overall dissatisfaction with the last couple of years in the handling of the pandemic, immigration, the economy, education, abortion, and other factors has rallied voters to seemingly side with the Republicans. While polls are not entirely accurate, they certainly provide an optimistic vision for Republicans and ominous outlook for Democrats in the face of the midterms.