On August 16, 2022, Liz Cheney, the sole House Representative of Wyoming, delivered a speech to supporters. In this speech, Cheney conceded her primary GOP House race to pro-Trump rival Harriet Hageman. This surrender signals the eighth House Republican who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021 to be out of Congress by January 2023.
2nd Impeachment of Donald Trump
Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, was impeached on January 13, 2021. The House of Representatives accused Trump of “inciting insurrection” that led to the January 6 Capitol attacks. Also, Trump was accused of disseminating voter fraud conspiracy theories on social media.
Despite the House majority voting to impeach Trump, the US Senate vote resulted in 57-43 in favor of Trump being “guilty.” This margin was ten votes short of the required two-thirds majority (67-33).
10 House Republicans’ Problems
In the House of Representatives vote, 10 Republicans voted with the 222 Democrats for the second impeachment. After the impeachment trial, the 10 Republicans have to decide whether to run for the 2022 House of Representatives reelections. Now, these representatives face the difficulty of maintaining their seats in GOP districts while confronting Trump-backed challengers.
Liz Cheney’s Background
Liz Cheney is the daughter of former US Vice President Dick Cheney to President George W. Bush from 2001-2009. The Cheney political dynasty has played a major role in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Washington DC for several decades.
From 2019-2021, Cheney served as the Chair for the House Republican Conference (HRC), the third-highest ranking in the Republican Party. The HRC is the party caucus for Republicans in the House of Representatives that hosts meetings and serves as the primary forum for communication among party members. Due to her repeated criticisms of former President Trump, Cheney was censured and removed from her leadership position. On May 14, 2021, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) replaced Cheney as the new Chair for the HRC.
Liz Cheney’s Reelection
The results of Liz Cheney’s reelection indicated no surprise. Prior to reelection, Cheney trailed in every public poll of the primary against the Trump-backed Harriet Hageman. Also, Hageman’s campaign heavily concentrated on Cheney’s decision to vote for Trump’s impeachment, collaboration with Democrats, and constant criticisms of Trump and his allies.
On August 16, 2022, the votes for Wyoming’s At-Large District Representative poured in. As a result, Harriet Hageman secured a dominating victory by securing 66% of the vote.
Afterwards, Hageman announced that her victory would serve as a beacon for the rest of the country, which she described as “fed up” with “corruption” in Washington DC. In an interview with Fox News, Hageman said her victory was a direct reflection of Wyoming voters rejecting Cheney as their representative and projecting dissatisfaction with Cheney and the Democrats going after Trump (FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago).
One day after her loss, Cheney converted her campaign committee to a federal “Leadership PAC” called “The Great Task.” Political Action Committees (PACs) are used to raise money, fund travel and donate to other political campaigns. This indicates that Cheney will continue to endorse candidates of her preference ahead of the 2022 Midterm Elections.
House Republicans Who Retired
Ahead of the primary reelections in their respective states, four House Republicans who voted for Trump’s impeachment retired.
Anthony Gonzalez is a former Ohio State and NFL wide receiver. Along with his Trump impeachment vote, Gonzalez sided with the Democrats to hold former Trump aide Steve Bannon accountable for refusing to testify to the January 6 committee. In September, Gonzalez announced that his congressional career was coming to an end. He added that “politically the environment is so toxic, especially in our own party right now.”
Adam Kinzinger decided to not run for reelection, ending his 12-year political career in the House of Representatives. Since then, serving with Cheney, Kinzinger was one of the two Republicans on the Jan. 6 committee investigating the Capitol attacks. Kinzinger’s seat was divided when Illinois Democrats redrew the state’s congressional lines.
Serving as the ranking member on the Committee on Homeland Security, John Katko terminated his reelection run. Katko is known for his bipartisan reputation in his blue-leaning seat. However, Katko’s district incorporated new territory in New York’s redistricting of congressional lines, which Katko feared to be detrimental to his campaign. As a result, Katko retired from office.
Fred Upton is one of the longest-tenured members of Congress. Back in 1998, Upton voted to impeach then-President Bill Clinton. Twenty-three years later, Upton voted to impeach Trump. After his impeachment vote, Trump endorsed Steve Carra, a Republican state legislator, to run against Upton. Due to Michigan’s redistricting, Upton feared a loss and declared his retirement.
House Republicans Who Were Defeated
After weeks of campaigning, three House Republicans (excluding Liz Cheney) who voted for Trump’s impeachment were defeated.
In addition to her vote for impeachment, Rep. Herrera Beutler revealed the details of a phone call between House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Trump. This phone call included Trump claiming that the Jan. 6 rioters cared more about the election than McCarthy did. Despite receiving vast donations from several super PACs, Beutler lost to Republican challenger Joe Kent. Kent will face Democrat Marie Perez in the GOP-leaning district in November.
Since 2012, Rice comfortably held his Republican-dominated seat. However, after Rice’s impeachment decision, pro-Trump Russell Fry capitalized on the situation to amass voters. In June, Tom Rice, five-term congressman, lost to Trump-endorsed state legislator Russell Fry. Once, Fry called Rice a RINO (Republican in Name Only) over his impeachment vote, and accused Rice of enabling America to be geared towards socialism. In the end, Fry significantly defeated Rice by garnering 51% of the votes, compared to Rice’s feeble 25%.
A few days into his first term, freshman Republican Peter Meijer voted to charge Trump of inciting the Capitol insurrection. Meijer claimed that Trump “betrayed millions with claims of a ‘stolen election.'” Before the race, several super PACs and Democrats supported Meijer hours before the election through $425k in ads. However, Meijer lost in the heated race with Trump-backed John Gibbs by less than 4,000 votes.
Rare Success for Two Pro-Impeachment House Republicans
Despite the vast failures of 8/10 of the House Republicans who voted for Trump’s impeachment, two representatives emerged victorious in the primaries. The Washington and California primaries are considered “top-two.” This indicates that the two candidates with the most votes (regardless of party) will advance to the general election.
In Washington’s 4th District, Dan Newhouse is a rare success story, edging out seven Republican and Democrat candidates and earning reelection opportunity in his deep-red district. Newhouse used his background in agricultural industry to his advantage to distinguish himself from the impeachment vote. As a result, Newhouse secured 25.5% of the votes, finishing less than 6,000 votes ahead of Trump-backed Loren Culp. Both Newhouse and Democrat Doug White will advance to the general election.
Running for California’s 21st District in 2020, David Valadao narrowly won his seat back from Democrats with 51% of the vote. Now, Valadao is considered the only GOP impeachment voter who did not encounter a pro-Trump challenger. This was probably not a coincidence because House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy might have urged Trump to not be involved in Valadao’s reelection. In the end, Valadao secured 2nd place with 26% of Republican votes behind Democrat lawyer Rudy Salas. However, due to California’s redistricting, Valadao’s district population displayed an increase in Democrat voters, putting Valadao at greater risk of losing in the November general election.
Conclusion
The defeat of 8 out of 10 Pro-Impeachment House Republicans signifies the extension of former President Trump’s influence in the Republican Party (GOP). Now, the midterm election primary cycle indicates that there is little room for anti-Trump GOP representatives to function. The reason for this is because there will be only two types of remaining Republican representatives: pro-Trump reps or those who have not angered the former President. This indicates that former President Trump’s overarching influence in the Republican Party remains steadfast. For example, Trump’s primary record for regular endorsements is 183-17 (92%) in his favor.
In the 2022 Midterms, if the Republicans gain control of the House and Senate in November, the new Congress will most likely function in the shadows of Trump. However, Trump’s influence might win back the House of Representatives but lose the Senate if his candidates fail to appeal to the significant masses, such as the suburban families. Suburban families have evolved into an important factor that affected recent elections, including Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory in the 2021 Virginia Governor Election.
These representatives’ anti-Trump viewpoints does not seem to resonate with the majority of GOP voters, but that does not mean that anti-Trump sentiment still exists in the party. For instance, Liz Cheney transferred leftover funds into a new entity, The Great Task, in order to prevent Donald Trump from running for White House in 2024. In addition, retired Illinois Rep Kinzinger seems to retaining his role in politics through aligning with nonprofits to recruit and train “pro-freedom, pro-democracy” future candidates.
Currently, the Republicans are projected to win the majority in the House of Representatives and Senate. However, the persistence of anti-Trump GOP politicians might impede Republican progress or even swing the advantage to the Democrats.
