Ahh, after a long twelve months, March Madness has finally returned. The four days where you research, flip coins and do other wacky and superstitious things to pick your teams. Whether you take ten minutes or two hours, you always need some background information to fill out your bracket and win within your group.
Here are some critical facts about the NCAA Tournament that you need to keep in mind when picking teams to make a run: In the 26 years where the field expanded to 64 teams, never has a #1 team lost to a 16-seed, so they’re almost locks to move on to the second round. Only four times since 1985 have all number 4-seeds made it out of the first round. Out of the 26 years of the expanded field, only three times has a 12-seed not made it out of the 1st round. Number three seeds are safer picks for the Sweet Sixteen than number 4 seeds. Number 12-seeds are good for the Sweet Sixteen but not for the elite 8, only one number 12 has made it to the Elite 8 which was Missouri. Always pick a 1-seed to go to the Final Four because only in two out of 26 years did a 1-seed not make it.
Boldness is praised in the bracket. The people who pick the George Masons, Butlers and VCUs are loved by peers. Some sleepers to look out for this tournament include:
12. OLE MISS: Ole Miss is very hot right now considering they ran the table in the SEC tournament culminating with a win over an impressive Florida team (number 3-seed) in the SEC championship game. They score 77.8 points a game but have an average defense. Their defense is not the key for a Cinderella story, it’s Marshall Henderson. With an average of 20 points per game and a demeanor like his, he is referred to as a hybrid of Jimmer Freddette and Eminem. He takes an average of about 11 threes per game and makes a little less than half. However if he is ice cold, Ole Miss might have problems; however if he is on, Ole Miss doesn’t seem to lose a game. With two rebounding machines down low, it is possible for them to make a run especially when the 1-seed in their region is Gonzaga.
11. Bucknell: Bucknell might have the most underrated players in the NCAA in 6-11 Mike Muscala, who can rebound, defend and put the ball on the floor. Bucknell also has a very strong defense that holds their opponents to 38% from the field and about 57 points per game. Also, Butler, their first round opponent, has been on a cold streak lately and is mending injuries. Butler has little size which does not help with Mike Muscala on the opposite side of the court.
7. Creighton: Anything is possible with Doug McDermott on your team. A player of the year candidate who scores 23.1 ppg creates a huge match-up problem. Not only him, but also Gregory Echenique who is a very physical and can rebound. They can easily beat Cincinnati, because Cincinnati relies heavily on second chances (Greg can stop that) and have trouble scoring. With Creighton’s offensive skill, they will probably score big, meaning Cincinnati will have to score, which creates a problem. They could also beat Duke. With Greg in the line-up he could easily guard Mason Plumlee one-on-one. Since most teams double Plumlee, Duke can get some open three’s, but if they don’t have to, the three gets taken away. And with a huge match-up problem for Duke, Ryan Kelly against McDermott, McDermott could go for 30 points without a double team. If a double team occurs, Creighton has many good 3pt shooters that shoot 42%.
5. VCU: We all know about VCU’s run when they made it to the Final Four, but Jay Bilas, an expert on ESPN says that this team might be better than the Final Four team. With their full court pressure defense, they force turnovers 24/7. With turnovers comes fast breaks and with fast breaks come easy points and an exhausted opponent. On a 3-on-1 they can drive or shoot a three, which VCU loves to do. Shaka Smart has experience in the tournament and they could pose a big threat to any team with their defense and three point shooting.
Something to Note: 11-seed Belmont is a great three point shooting team, who in the first round play 6-seed Arizona, who are one of the worst teams at defending the three. 5-seed Oklahoma State has one of the best freshmen in the country in Marcus Smart. He fuels the team (15 ppg, 5.7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals) and never seems to have a bad night. They also have a pair of stud players, Le’Bryan Nash and Markel Brown who both average over 14 points a game. Iona who is playing Ohio State has MoMo Jones and Sean Armand who are both elite shooters. Could they compete with the best defender in Aaron Craft?
You have the Cinderella’s, but realistically they don’t have a shot to make it to the big game. Some real contenders include:
1. Indiana: To start, Indiana played maybe the toughest conference schedule. Their conference schedule included Michigan State, who Indiana defeated twice, Ohio State who they beat and a non-conference game in which they beat Georgetown by 10. The team is led by Victor Oladipo, one of maybe the most athletic players in the country and Tyler Zeller, both are player of the year candidates. They can shoot the three, dish inside and control the tempo of the game, making them a favorite to win it all.
2. Louisville: Louisville’s back court is outstanding with the likes of Peyton Siva and Russ Smith (18.1 ppg). They can score and have a solid post presence with 6-11 Gorgul Dieng. They have held their opponents to under 60 points in 21 games this season and have a great and experienced coach in Rick Patino. However, they are in the most “stacked” region with Duke, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Saint Louis. Not only that, but they have to play in Rupp Arena, the home of Patino’s old team and rival of Louisville.
3. Duke: Oh, this might be the best team in the tournament. With Ryan Kelly in the lineup, Duke has only lost one game. His presence on the floor really creates problems for the opposing team. Kelly can shoot the three with the best of them (just ask Miami) which allows Mason Plumlee free roam in the paint. Most teams are forced to double him, so who do they leave open? Seth Curry, Quinn Cook, Freshman Rasheed Sulaimon (from Strake-Jesuit), and Ryan Kelly, all outstanding three point shooters. If Duke can shoot, they win but if they can’t, they will lose to teams like Virginia and Maryland. Not to mention they have arguably the best coach ever, Coach K.
Something to Note: Ohio State has fantastic players in Aaron Craft, the best backcourt defender, and Deshaun Thomas, a pure shooter and clutch player. Not to mention, they have a great defense. It’s also hard to believe Miami isn’t good at football, but a contender in basketball. Their senior leadership and veteran Coach Jim Larranaga can lead them through. Furthermore, they won the ACC regular season title and ACC tournament title. They notable beat Duke in both of those categories. They can compete with anyone and have a true shot of cutting down the nets.
Although predictions are greatly coveted, after a season like this one, nothing is certain. With the number one ranked team losing too many times to count, the surest bet for the title may well be one of the teams in the middle of the bracket, and not necessarily the front-runner. One can only wait for the drama to unfold in this year’s NCAA tournament.
