As of October 27, 2022, around 14 million Americans have casted their votes in pre-election ballots across 44 states. Among these states, Texas has seen 1 million early votes. Until November 8, Texan voters will be casting their ballots for seven statewide seats: governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, land commissioner, agricultural commissioner, comptroller, and one of the positions of the Railroad Commission. Also, voters will elect officials into legislative and judicial seats.
The most closely watched contentions will be the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general races. The three Republican incumbents – Governor Greg Abbott, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, and Attorney General Ken Paxton – will be confronting strong Democrat challengers. The outcomes of the Texas elections will be heavily influenced by recent issues such as abortion, the border crisis, the economy, and gun rights.
ISSUES INFLUENCING TEXAS ELECTIONS
Many political, economic, and social issues occurring at a nationwide scale have impacted every state, including Texas. These issues are and will continue to influence Texans’ decisions at the ballot.
ABORTION
On June 24, 2022, in a historic decision, the US Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade through the Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case. This landmark decision granted individual states complete power to regulate abortion not preempted by federal law. Afterward, fearing prosecution under new state laws, many abortion clinics in Texas closed down operations. Furthermore, Texas’ trigger law criminalizes abortion from the moment of fertilization unless the pregnant patient is confronting a life-threatening physical condition. As a result, from Dallas to Houston, thousands of Texans protested the overturning of Roe v. Wade and passing of the trigger law, which led to more counter-protesting the pro-abortion advocates.
GUN VIOLENCE
Since 2016, the state of Texas allows citizens to openly carry firearms rather than have to conceal them. This sparked widespread controversy and heated exchanges in Texas. In May 2022, 85 miles west of San Antonio, nineteen children and two adults were killed in a mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde. The Uvalde shooting is the eighth mass shooting in a Texas public space in the last 13 years.
In the past few months, many Democrats, including Beto O’Rourke, became more vocal in advocating for the banning of assault rifles and stricter laws on gun ownership. For instance, at the Uvalde press conference, Beto confronted Governor Abbott and called him out for doing nothing, which drew heavy criticism from prominent Republicans such as Senator Ted Cruz and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick.
GAS PRICES
In February 2022, after amassing the largest number of troops since WWII, Russia invaded Ukraine. In response, the United States and NATO introduced economic sanctions on Russia, a country that supplies 10% of the globe’s oil. In the United States, gas prices spiked dramatically, ranging from $3 to $7 per gallon. Texas witnessed its highest gas prices with the regular unleaded price rising to $4.67 and diesel to $5.33 per gallon.
BORDER CRISIS
For the past year and a half, Governor Greg Abbott has made border security his top priority and the focus of his reelection campaign. In 2021, Abbott announced the beginning of Operation Lone Star. This operation allocated $4 billion to reconstruct certain areas of the US-Mexico border wall, deployment of thousands of National Guard troops to the border, and immigration control agencies to regulate the flow of migrants.
From March to July, the number of migrants reaching the border only amounted to 110k per month. However, in August, more than 2 million migrants were massed at the border. During encounters with migrants, Texas National Guard and state police made 19k criminal arrests and seizures of 5500 weapons and 336 million doses of fentanyl. While being overwhelmed by the sheer number of migrants, Governor Abbott made the decision to send thousands of migrants to sanctuary cities. These sanctuary cities included NYC, Washington DC, and Chicago. While receiving praise from many Republicans and former politicians, Abbott also received heavy backlash from current Democrats for his policies.
Currently, immigration and border security come out as the most pressing issues for Texan voters at 32%. Meanwhile, 14% of voters said the most pressing issue was the national economy and 13% believed it is abortion.
GOVERNOR ELECTION
DEBATE
On September 30, 2022, Governor Abbott and challenger Beto O’Rourke assembled at the University of Texas at Rio Grande Valley in Edinburg, TX. On this Friday night, Abbott and Beto clashed over abortion, immigration, and gun control. Throughout the debate, Abbott pointed out Beto’s flip flopped stance on issues like police funding and energy policies. However, O’Rourke lashed out on Abbott’s “failure to fix the energy grid and gun violence.” In addition, Governor Abbott echoed his continuation of increasing security on the border and maintenance of gun and abortion laws. But, Beto criticized Abbott for his slow response towards the needs of victims of gun violence and abortion.
FUNDRAISING
From late February through June, Beto reported raising $27.6 million, which is the most a Texas candidate ever raised in a short period of time. Overall, Beto has raised $66 million, finishing $4 million ahead of Abbott. However, there is a difference between the competitors’ fundraisings. Most of Beto’s fundraising is either small-dollar donations from out-of-state residents, Democrat-leaning billionaires, or political entities. In contrast, the majority of Abbott’s donations are mainly from Texans, ranging from moderate benefactors to business industries (e.g. hotels, finance groups).
POLLS & TRENDS
Since the debate, Governor Abbott has maintained single-digit leads over his Democrat challenger. However, on October 21, 2022, Abbott’s lead widened to 11 points, according to a new poll from the Texas Politics Project at UT Austin. As early voting began, Abbott’s lead shrank to 4-5%.
By double-digit margins, Texan voters claimed that they trusted Governor Abbott more than Beto regarding border security and state economy. However, Texans were split on abortion with Abbott and Beto receiving 44% of voters’ support.
Among the registered independents, Abbott’s support doubled that of Beto. As for Hispanic voters, despite forecasted as winning the group, Beto is struggling with Abbott to gain dominating support. Seeing the Hispanic voter turnout as one of the most important priorities, Governor Abbott initiated numerous campaigns in border towns and the San Antonio area.
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR ELECTION
Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, the incumbent Republican for the past eight years, now confronts Democrat Mike Collier in the coming election. Currently, Lt. Governor Patrick is leading his challenger by 15%.
Also seeing South Texas as a priority, Lt. Governor Dan Patrick initiated a statewide bus tour and made 131 stops. Then, Patrick turned his social media into a travel diary with stories of his travels and rallies. At these rallies, Patrick voiced his continued support for increased border funding and busing of migrants to Washington DC, and NYC. Patrick added that winning 65% of the rural vote is not enough for Republicans, but 70-75% would be necessary to offset other Democrat holdings. Due to many rural-based GOP lawmakers resisting vouchers, Patrick visited these places to assuage his fellow Republicans’ concerns.
As a former Republican, Mike Collier is looking to make himself more popular among Texans in his second attempt to unseat Patrick. Furthermore, Collier asserts that endorsements from GOP names who oppose Patrick are accelerating his efforts to win the lieutenant governor. For instance, Collier made several stops in the DFW metroplex to meet with disillusioned Republicans to garner additional support. At campaign events, Collier said that his experience as an oil and energy expert, a former accountant, and former Republican would make him a perfect lieutenant governor.
ATTORNEY GENERAL ELECTION
Ken Paxton, the incumbent attorney general (AG), is facing a reelection campaign against Democrat Rochelle Garza. According to a recent Dallas Morning News poll, Paxton only leads Garza by a minuscule margin of 2%.
Paxton is now plagued with legal trouble, which makes him one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents this year. Indicted seven years ago for security fraud, Paxton remains under investigation by the FBI after some of his former staff members accused him of abusing power. However, Paxton remains popular in Texas through his overwhelming fundraising advantage through his vast investment in TV and billboard ads. So far, Paxton has raised $8 million and still has $3.5 million left to spend on his campaign, outraising Garza by $7 million.
Currently, many Democrats assert that Garza is their only hope of landing one of theirs in a statewide office. Bill Compton, a Dallas lawyer who frequently donates to Democrat candidates, states that Garza is beset with a name recognition problem. This means that Garza needs more support from Democrat donors, especially from out of state. However, Garza has recently experienced a boost in popularity through her active stance on women’s reproductive rights.
On his official website, AG Paxton said that his wife was adopted and how this makes him revere the sanctity of the unborn and pro-life belief. In response to Paxton announcing a “trigger law” that virtually banned all abortions in Texas, Garza stepped up with our campaigns and declared that abortion is the biggest issue facing voters. In addition, Garza bolstered her platform by asserting that Paxton fled his home to avoid a subpoena regarding nonprofits’ assistance of Texans’ payments for out-of-state abortions.
OTHER ELECTIONS
In addition to the three main contentions, four other commissioner races are also significant regarding the management of Texas’ economy.
The agriculture commissioner supports farmers and provides school lunch programs in elementary, middle, and high schools. Sid Miller, Republican Incumbent, is facing his toughest reelection cycle as he takes on Democrat challenger Susan Hays. With his signature hat and jeans, Miller is often seen as an image of a Texas cowboy. Serving as a women’s rights lawyer, Hays steps up to challenge Miller, while possessing an advantage regarding past controversies regarding his inflammatory remarks in the 2020 elections. However, Sid Miller continues to remain as a popular politician among many Republicans.
The land commissioner oversees and manages 13 million acres of land, and administers disaster recovery and public school funds. After George P. Bush (grandson of George H.W. Bush) left this office to run for attorney general, the office was immediately considered by three candidates. These candidates are Republican Dawn Buckingham, Democrat Jay Kleberg, and Green Party nominee Alfred Molison.
The comptroller is the state official assigned to collecting taxes and overseeing the state treasury and budget. Currently, Glenn Hegar, Republican incumbent for the past seven years, is facing two opponents: Democrat Janet Dudding and Libetarian Alonzo Echevarria-Garza. Running for his third term, Hegar has made increasingly provocative moves. These moves include lashing against financial companies that are “anti-oil and gas” and threatening budget sanctions against Harris County over police funding. Combating Hegar, Democrat Janet Dudding stated her interest in renewable and geothermal energy and plans to reduce oil and gas dependency. However, along with Echevarria-Garza, Dudding faces a steep financial and popularity challenge against the incumbent.
The railroad commission manages and regulates the oil and gas industry. This commission consists of three members with one up for election this year. Wayne Christian, Republican incumbent who won a Republican runoff in May, now faces Democrat Luke Warford. No Democrat has ever won this office since 1994. Wayne Christian declared that his agenda will be centered on cheap, plentiful, and reliable energy with a substantial annual budget of $144 million.
PREDICTIONS
According to FiveThirtyEight, Governor Abbott has a strong chance in maintaining his seat. This means that Abbott’s lead will most likely remain the same. Most experts predict that Abbott will win by around 10%. Based on Lt. Governor Patrick’s active campaigning and popularity, various polls predict that Patrick will win by 10% or more. Next, because of having a 40% approval rate and a financial advantage, Paxton is predicted to win by a large margin like Abbott and Patrick.
Finally, widely trusted by the majority of Texans to manage the state’s economy and resources, all Republican incumbents are predicted to either maintain or win their commissioner positions. All of these Republicans are leading their Democrat challengers by double-digit leads.
CONCLUSION
Since the end of the 20th century, Republicans have widely dominated Texas politics. No Democrat has ever won one of the seven statewide seats in the last two to three decades. Despite their control over metropolitan areas eroding, Republicans are making more support in the historically Democrat-based South Texas. For instance, Texas Democrats received the lowest number of votes in the Rio Grande Valley lately.
Currently, the majority of Texans believe that current state lawmakers’ decisions are heading in the right direction. Over 50% of Texans support Governor Abbott’s busing of migrants to sanctuary cities, increasing border funding, and handling of the economy, public education, and healthcare.
However, the same number of Texans want abortion laws to be “less strict” and gun control laws to be “more strict.” This signifies how Texans continue to prioritize their political participation and how this will affect their careers, education, etc. Even though Republicans are most likely to continue their dominance in Texas, Democrats might pose a serious challenge to the GOP this year and in the coming elections.
