The modern NBA has turned into a glorified three-point contest, where centers camp out at the arc, layups are for cowards, and every possession feels like watching someone play NBA 2K on rookie mode. Where has true basketball gone, and what has led the NBA down this path? This article will consider the many factors that make the NBA truly unwatchable.
Difficult Access to Games
Let’s start off with the most obvious factor of all: the fact that the NBA has done everything in their power to make it extremely difficult to watch games. For starters, NBA League Pass offers most games and full access to NBA TV, but with blackout restrictions for local broadcasts and any games on TNT, ABC, and ESPN. This means that most Mavericks fans in Dallas can’t access their favorite team’s games without needing a separate subscription in addition to the NBA’s League Pass. Therefore, casual fans who only really want to watch their own team have to pay more. The NBA is all about the money, and their approach is causing them to lose casual fans more and more. For another look on how much availability affects fandom, consider this: in Texas, their are a ton of Braves fans. Why? Because back in the 80s and 90s, TBS televised Atlanta Braves games nationally as a “superstation.” Easy access, paired with the Braves’ dominance throughout the 90s, attracted many baseball fans in Texas to become fans of the Braves today. The NBA shouldn’t underestimate how much availability contributes to fandom.
Competitive Imbalance
The NBA is in a predicament that they have been in for a while. Entering the playoffs, there is little to no excitement for teams lower than the top two or three in the playoffs. In fact, of the last 20 NBA champions, 16 were top 2-seeds entering the playoffs, with 0 championships being won by a 4th seed or lower. There is little to no competition in the playoffs with teams that have been the best all year. This is especially true for last season. The Boston Celtics won the NBA Championship in five games against the Mavericks, and never played a series longer than five games in the entirety of the playoffs. Fans pretty much new who was going to win the championship after Boston ended the regular season with 64 wins. This led to many fans losing hope before the playoffs even started. However, the Dallas Mavericks, a 5-seed, were able to surprise everyone to make the Finals. The Pacers, a 6-seed, upset two top 3-seeds to make the Conference Finals. And yet, both teams met their fate to the undisputed best team in the league, the Boston Celtics. So here’s the kicker: the NBA has multiple tactics for how to eliminate top seeds’ high advantage (obviously they earned the top seed so they should still get an advantage, but the NBA should try to keep the playoffs more competitive).
One tactic is seeding the playoffs without conferences. I’m not a huge fan of this one, but it does make sense. Last year, the Knicks were the 2-seed in the East with a 50-32 record. The Mavericks, with the same record, were 5th in the West. It is incredibly obvious that playing in the West is more difficult than the East. So, the NBA could reseed teams based off total record, but still make it so that there are eight East teams and eight West teams to ensure that conference play still matters. Now I’m not sure how the play-in would work, but the play-in isn’t even that great anyway, so getting rid of it could be beneficial. Anyways, the top eight seeds in each conference are then reseeded by record (1-16), and the playoffs begin. This would go against the NBA’s tradition, but could fix the problem at hand. Some other ideas include the top four seeds getting to draft their opponents from the 5-8 seeds, or maybe randomizing the seeds before each round to eliminate home-court advantage and predictable paths to the Finals. Other easier and less striking changes could be returning to the 5-game first round, even single elimination first rounds. This would make it easier for a lower seed to take over a series with just one or two upsets.
Lengthy Regular Season
If the NBA wants to improve ratings on regular season games, they’ve got to make the regular season more interesting. But when there is a total of 1,230 games played throughout the season, it’s hard to draw viewers in for every single one. Also, because of the lack of impact each game seems to have, teams are more lenient on injuries, and tend to load-manage their stars. The NBA tried to add load-management rules to prevent stars from taking unnecessary breaks in the season, including the need to play 65+ games to qualify for top awards. The NBA even handed out fines for instances in which a player could have played, but most billion dollar corporations would take a $100,000 fine if it meant that their star could stay healthy for longer. The regular season doesn’t really matter anymore for most players and teams. Losing three straight games doesn’t look as bad in an 82 game season than it would if the season were about 60-70 more games. The NBA needs their games to matter more. Take the NFL for instance, their season is 17 games. Every game they play matters, and that’s why even on Christmas, where both games were 19 and 29 point margins respectively, the NFL still outperformed the NBA’s ratings, who’s games were decided by an average of 5 points.
So, how can the NBA fix this? Well, at the moment, each NBA team plays four games against each of their division opponents, four games against six out-of-division opponents (in the same conference), three games against the remaining four out-of-division opponents, and two games against each non-conference foe. So, to frame it better, they could emphasize division games by making it the most common opponent for a team. Something like four division games (each team), three non-division same conference games, and one non-conference game would equate to 61 games. This would make division games and same conference games the most important on your schedule, and shorten the season. That way, stars wouldn’t have to play many back to backs, and could stay healthy throughout the entirety of the playoffs. This would in turn draw more viewers to the NBA playoffs. Imagine if last year Kawhi Leonard had been fully healthy for the playoffs. He had already played 68 regular season games, and with only 61 on his schedule, he would have been fully healthy for a playoff run. Similar situation with Zion Williamson, as he had played a career high in games for a season yet suffered an injury right before the playoffs started.
3-Point Volume & Offensive Advantage
Every NBA team plays way to similarly. Shoot the three. Shoot it again. Chuck it up from 30 feet. Too many threes are being shot for the game to be interesting. Just take the recent Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Boston Celtics game. Of the first 14 shots taken, 13 of them were threes. And it took until the game’s 7th 3-point attempt for one to fall. In total, the value of three pointers isn’t all that great anyway. Take the team with one of the best records for example. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 35.1% from three and 55.2% on all two-point shots. That means the expected value of their shots (Points possible time Make%) is 1.053 for a 3-point shot and 1.104 for a 2-point shot. That still doesn’t explain why the three is used so profusely today. Another example of why the three ball is used too much in the modern game: the Denver Nuggets currently attempt the least three pointers and make the fourth least. And yet, they are the third highest scoring team in the NBA. It is possible to produce without shooting a million threes per game?
Changes that could be made to prevent the volume of threes affecting viewership is possibly making three pointers worth two points in the first and third quarters. That way, games can’t get out of control early in each half, preventing blowouts and boring games. Other ways to maintain scoring balance with the three ball is by shortening the shot clock. This would force people to try and drive to the lane quicker to set up a shot. However, this idea isn’t foolproof, as a shorter shot clock could make teams shoot even worse shot looks. Furthermore, the NBA’s rules present an advantage to the offensive player. Traveling, carrying, and double-dribbles are rarely called, meaning the offensive player can virtually do anything to try and score. This is a big reason why scoring has inflated in recent years. Maybe the NBA should bring back hand-checking, or get rid of defensive 3-seconds so that clogging the paint could lead to more mid-range shots.
Decline of Star Power & Rivalries
It’s no secret that the NBA has profited off of Lebron James, Steph Curry, and Kevin Durant for a while now. But it’s also no secret that Lebron, Steph, and KD are closer to retirement than they are to their last championship. I don’t think the NBA is prepared for life post-Lebron and Steph, so when these stars eventually do retire, the NBA will take a big hit in the ratings. Lebron’s team is on the cusp of the play-in, Steph Curry’s Dubs are struggling to win back-to-back games, and KD’s Suns are an afterthought in the West. As sad as it is, the NBA needs to accept this and focus more on the new generation of stars. So how about instead of putting Lebron, Steph, and KD on Christmas, they could put Giannis, Lamelo Ball, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or Ja Morant instead. They need to prepare for the day in which Lebron, Curry, and KD eventually retire by emphasizing the new generation. And what better player to do that with than Victor Wembanyama.Â
Another decline in the NBA could be the loss of major rivalries. The NBA has thrived off of major rivalries such as Magic’s Lakers vs. Bird’s Celtics, Jordan’s Bulls vs. the Bad Boy Pistons, and Lebron’s Cavs vs. Curry’s Dubs. These rivalries have shaped NBA history. However, with Lebron retiring sooner rather than later, the lack of rivalries will make the NBA “just a game.” And while basketball is “just a game,” it matters more to the players and fans when they have their emotions involved with the game. Maybe implementing the idea of higher seeds drafting their lower seeded opponents would provide some edge to the lower seeds, as the idea that they got picked because they seem “beatable” would encourage them to give it their best go. However the NBA wants to do this, they have a foundation for some rivalries between Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as they were second and third in MVP voting last season and met up in the playoffs. And with how good the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers look in the East, the Donovan Mitchell vs. Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown rivalry could become a thing.
Conclusion
However the NBA decides to combat these glaring issues, I am in full support, as changes are needed to fix the ratings problem. Another issue I elected not to cover is the All-Star Weekend problem, as that could be a whole article in and of itself. Ultimately, though, the NBA is still among the top in the sports industry. However, Adam Silver needs to be on the radar with these problems moving forward as he tries to expand into Seattle and Las Vegas.
Stay tuned to The Roundup for more NBA viewpoint articles!
